Think tank British Future has argued a combination of control and compassion could address the issue, similar to action taken in the US.
Ministers could cut the number of Channel crossings by 75% in the next three years by scaling up “routes and returns” based on the existing UK-France returns agreement, a report has suggested.
Immigration think tank British Future has argued a combination of control and compassion could address the issue and that polling suggests the approach is backed by the British public.
In its report How we can actually stop the boats, the authors call for the UK-France “one in, one out” deal to be expanded by 10 or 20 times so the majority of people who make the journey across the Channel from France without permission will be sent back to the continent.
At the same time, the report proposes allowing for a significant number of people to have the right to claim asylum through an expanded and regularised route to the UK, which would undermine the smuggling gangs’ business model.
Of the UK-France deal, it added: “The potential of this scheme, at scale, to break the deadlock has been underappreciated.”
It comes as the Government is facing fresh pressure over the migrant returns agreement, which is yet to send any migrants back to France since it came into force last month.
On Tuesday, the High Court also temporarily blocked the deportation of an Eritrean man, who was set to be removed on Wednesday under the scheme, while he produces medical evidence to back up his human trafficking claim.
British Future’s analysis draws on policy under the former US president Joe Biden when migrants arriving in the US by crossing the US-Mexico border without permission dropped by 81% in the year between December 2023 to 2024.
The report highlights how the US administration also carried out quick returns of those asylum seekers arriving while also offering capped legal routes to give refugee protection to those eligible.
It added that implementing the policy at scale “matters”, and a smaller US pilot scheme in 2023 produced poor results, but border crossings dropped after it was expanded in 2024.
British Future director and co-author of the report Sunder Katwala said: “The new Home Secretary needs to seize the initiative on small boats with a real-world plan that is bold enough to have an impact but founded on hard evidence of what works.
“The foundations are in place in the UK-France deal. The US experience shows what can be achieved when this approach is delivered at scale.
“The public would support this: they want action on Channel crossings but still want Britain to protect refugees in need. Most people would prefer an orderly, controlled and humane system to the populist threat to tear everything up, which appeals only to a vocal minority.”
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The report argues that scaling up the UK-France deal would change the behaviour of people seeking asylum, like in the US where people would no longer be willing to pay smugglers for dangerous journeys if they have a safer alternative available.
The existing UK-France pilot scheme was agreed in July, in order for the UK to send back to France asylum seekers who have crossed the Channel, in exchange for those who apply and are approved to come to Britain.
France has reportedly said it will only accept a small initial contingent of deportations, while the UK has said it hopes to increase numbers over the course of the scheme in an effort to stop small boat crossings in the Channel.
Polling by Ipsos for the think tank on the new proposal found 55% of 1,502 British adults supported for the UK to agree with France a capped number of asylum seekers to come to the country via authorised routes each year, while also agreeing for France to take back those who crossed the Channel without permission.
The polling also suggested majority support from Conservative voters (64%) and Reform voters (53%), as well as 62% of Labour and 58% of Lib Dem voters.
Some 48% of another 1,501 adults surveyed also backed the proposal if the cap was set at welcoming 50,000 authorised asylum seekers each year.
Frank Sharry, co-author of the report and former lead immigration adviser to the Kamala Harris presidential campaign in the US, said: “Many argue that governments cannot deliver the control voters want on immigration unless they rip up treaties and throw refugees under the bus.
“But the policy lesson from America’s experience last year is clear: a mix of international co-operation, credible deterrence and managed legal pathways produces results.
“The political lesson is also clear: if Labour is to thwart the populists who weaponise migration in pursuit of power, a humane and workable solution to the small boats crisis is essential.”
The report’s proposal is supported by former home secretary Charles Clarke who said it “demands serious and urgent consideration by the Government”.
Refugee Council chief executive Enver Solomon also urged for political leaders to move beyond “toxic rhetoric and deliver the practical reform the public want”.
He added: “The British Future report is an important reminder that the public do not reject refugees — in fact, most people support an approach that combines control with compassion.”
