2025 is on course to be a record year for crossings.
Measures to curb migrant Channel crossings are not expected to bring numbers down until next year, the PA news agency understands.
Officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of bringing numbers down this year, with measures not expected to start paying off until 2026.
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on course to be a record year for crossings.
The rise is thought to be partly due to an increase in so-called “red days”, when the weather is particularly good for crossings.
So far there have been around double the number of red days in 2025 than there were by the same point in 2024.
Smugglers are also cramming more people into the boats, with sources suggesting migrants, increasingly from the Horn of Africa, are more likely to take risks.
The Prime Minister has pledged to crack down on smuggling gangs that bring people into the UK in small boats, including by targeting criminal networks overseas.
Sir Keir Starmer said this week the Government would start talks with other countries on “return hubs” for failed asylum seekers.
He said these hubs, which would see failed asylum seekers sent for processing in third countries prior to deportation, would not be a “silver bullet” for halting the crossings.
But the proposal is expected to act as a deterrent.
