A battle for America’s soul
Food inequality
It is impossible to separate food from politics. On the one hand there’s the impact…
In some US political circles President Joe Biden is regarded as something of a miracle worker for the breadth of his achievements – despite mediocre approval ratings and persistent criticism that he’s too old, at 79, to run the country.
Consider these feats, all actioned within the first two years of his presidency: the biggest investment against climate change in American history, a break-through programme to lower the cost of prescription drugs, new taxes on billionaires, expanded health care benefits for military veterans, $1.9 trillion in Covid relief, $1 trillion to address the nation’s crumbling infrastructure, new programmes to boost domestic chip manufacturing and a nexus of laws to reduce access to guns. Along the way, unemployment has dropped to pre-pandemic levels, gas prices are falling, NATO is expanding and a US drone strike found the leader of Al Qaeda.
Most presidents could only dream of such accomplishments, made more impressive by the near-unanimous opposition of the rival Republicans and periodic resistance from his own Democrats. Stir in the widespread anger over the Supreme Court decision to end federally-protected abortion rights, and Democrats now have persuasive talking points for the midterm elections next month.
But wait. Are voters hearing any of it? Biden’s approval numbers are still stuck in the 40s. Inflation remains stubbornly high. And the circles in which he is regaled as a champion of the people are surrounded by a loud chorus of Donald Trump supporters, as the former president rebrands the Republican party into a members-only Make America Great Again club – one where the dues are absolute fealty to him, distrust in civilian-run government and agreement that the 2020 election was rigged against him. Never mind the lack of any evidence.
Midterm elections are the halfway point of a four-year presidential term. Voters cast ballots for all 435 House seats, a third of the 100 Senate seats and various state positions, as they do in presidential years. Congressional outcomes generally reflect the level of satisfaction with the president’s party.
Close as they are – the Senate is evenly-divided and Democrats hold a slim advantage in the House – elections next month have the added dimension of extending the 2020 presidential race without presidential candidates. Biden’s legislative record is competing against Trump’s ongoing War of Grievance and Vengeance.
This is all highly unusual. A former president rarely insinuates himself in midterms, but Trump sees himself as anything but a former president. His ubiquity this year, through endorsing MAGA loyalists in Republican primaries and teasing the possibility of running again in 2024, has elevated the gravity of this year’s voting. Foremost, he has tightened his reins on the party through nearly 250 primary endorsements for federal, state, even local offices. More than 90 per cent of them won, including Harriet Hageman, who became the party nominee for Wyoming’s one House seat by defeating Trump’s most aggressive Republican critic, Liz Cheney, one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach him and now the vice chair of the commission investigating the mob attack on the Capitol last year.
“I could easily have done the same again, the path was clear, but it would have required that I go along with President Trump’s lie about the 2020 election,” she said in her concession speech. “It would have required that I enable his ongoing efforts to unravel our democratic system and attack the foundations of our republic. That was a path I could not and would not take.”
As if Trump endorsements have not been enough to fuel the MAGA movement, he is currently the focus of at least six investigations by Congressional and state authorities. Perhaps the most threatening of these is a Justice Department probe into why 11,000 government documents, some marked top secret for national security reasons, found their way into his Florida residence. New York State is suing him, his three oldest children and his business, The Trump Organisation, for engaging in “staggering” real estate fraud over a decade and for over-valuing his assets by billions of dollars. The consequences of these cases and others could lead to financial penalties and perhaps prison. Meanwhile, MAGA types have rallied around him with threats of violence against all perceived enemies, now including the FBI for seizing the documents.
As the heads of the FBI and Department of Homeland Security cited the rising threat level, the evidence was mounting. Judge Bruce Reinhart, who authorised the search warrant for the documents, was attacked online by rightwing extremists, some threatening his life. Days after the seizure, federal agents killed a man who had tried to breach an FBI office in Cincinnati. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Trump confidante, warned that any prosecution of Trump would ignite “riots in the street,” a prediction Trump amplified by threatening “big problems like we’ve never seen” if he were indicted.
To counter all that, Biden has morphed from his amiable Uncle Joe persona to a sharp-tongued GI Joe, attacking Trump and his loyalists for embracing lies and violence. In speeches to promote his agenda, he has linked MAGA Republicans to semi-fascism: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” he said last month, framing the November elections as part of a fight for “the very soul of this country.” A few days later Trump fired back, accusing Biden of giving “the most vicious, hateful, and divisive speech ever delivered by an American president.”
One recent poll found perhaps the only issue on which Democrats and Republicans agree: democracy is “in danger of collapse.” But each side blamed the other as the cause. So, what to make of all this as elections approach?
Firstly, it’s not entirely clear how persuasive Trump’s grievance is beyond his MAGA base, which constitutes less than half of all Republicans. Others, weary of the constant churn of controversy, are more focused on such quotidian issues as inflation, public education and immigration. Some Republican leaders fear that Trump’s loyalty demands are alienating the moderates and independents needed to win a general election, leaving them the uncomfortable choice of a MAGA candidate espousing 2020 election denial, Christian nationalism, abortion bans and a rollback of LGBTQ+ rights, or a Democrat. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, no fan of Trump’s, warned that “candidate quality” might cost his party the majority.
Secondly, Democrat funders spent more than $50 million in a cynical effort to support MAGA primary candidates, betting that a MAGA Republican may be easier to beat than a moderate in a general election. At least 40 states have 2020 election deniers running for Congress and state offices, prompting Republicans to gloat, “be careful what you wish for.”
Third, abortion has emerged as a wild-card issue, energising Democrat voters. While a growing number of Republican-led states have moved to enact bans (some without exceptions for rape, incest or health of the mother) voters in the conservative state of Kansas shocked both parties by rejecting a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed for tighter restrictions, or a total ban. Many states have shown a surge in voter registration by women. Democrats have made abortion a leading campaign issue. Republicans are virtually silent.
With a month to go, most polls suggest Democrats will hold the Senate and Republicans will win the House – but by a smaller margin than once predicted, because of anger over abortion restrictions, less dire economic conditions than a few months ago and waning concerns over Covid. The real fault line is the degree to which the proxies invigorate their voters. While many Republicans fixate on Trump’s 2020 “victory”, as well as immigration, crime and inflation, Democrats point to Biden’s successes and the threat to democracy if the MAGA movement spreads.
The loss of either chamber would hit Biden hard. The party winning the House also gets all committee chairs and the power to set the agenda. Republicans have already promised to launch investigations into the business dealings of Biden’s son, Hunter; the uneven response to the Covid crisis under Anthony Fauci (the government’s chief infectious disease expert); and the Department of Justice for the seizure of the documents. They’ve also threatened to impeach Biden. For what, who knows.
Beyond all that, losing either chamber would end Biden’s victory streak, cementing gridlock at least until the 2024 presidential election, when voters will decide, maybe once and for all, what “the very soul of this country” actually is.
