The SNP leader believes Scotland could be independent by the end of 2030 – and wants to run in the 2031 elections to be the country’s leader.
John Swinney believes he can win an independence referendum in 2028 – with the SNP leader vowing he will then run to be the first leader in an independent Scotland in 2031.
Having set the SNP the target of winning a majority of seats in next month’s Holyrood election in a bid to force another vote on the future of the UK, Mr Swinney is confident that independence supporters will be successful second time round.
The 2014 referendum – held after Alex Salmond became the only party leader so far to win an overall majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament – saw Scots vote by 55% to 45% in favour of staying part of the UK.
But with the SNP leader now focusing on the prospect of another referendum in 2028, Mr Swinney believes independence supporters can “land it” by “being persuasive”.
With Scotland – and the rest of the UK – now out of the European Union, despite claims made in the run-up to 2014 that voting against independence was necessary to remain part of the EU, he also believes voters will be “less susceptible to the arguments made by the No side”.
He spoke about the prospect of another referendum as the Press Association joined him on the SNP’s election battlebus.
The First Minister – who said when he launched his party’s Holyrood manifesto on Thursday that he was “only just getting started” – spoke about what could happen in such a vote.
He said: “I think we are very close to winning Scottish independence. I just have to make it happen.”
Describing himself as being a “persuasive person”, he added: “I have persuaded many people to change the way they vote for me.
“I have managed to persuade many, many people to vote for budgets they never thought they would ever vote for by being accommodating and reasonable and respecting other people’s perspectives.
“And I think that is how we will land it, by being persuasive.”
Asked directly if he believes he will win an independence referendum, Mr Swinney said simply: “Yes”.
He then believes Scotland could complete the process of becoming an independent nation within 18 months – the same timetable that was suggested by the party in the run-up to the 2014 vote.
That could see Scotland become independent by the end of 2030, making the Holyrood elections due to be held the following year the first in an independent Scotland.
Asked if he would step down at this point, Mr Swinney said instead he would run to be the first leader of an independent Scotland.
“It’s the point at which I stand to be the first prime minister of an independent Scotland,” he declares.
He insists he does not fear “in the slightest” the campaign pro-UK parties will mount to keep Scotland in the UK – with Mr Swinney claiming that the “credibility” of Labour, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats has been “diminished”.
Hitting out at his political rivals, he said: “We were all told: wait for a Labour government, and it will solve all our issues. ‘We don’t need to have independence, we just need a Labour government.’
“Well it is a total and utter shambles.
“Shambles, disappointment – there is nothing good you can say about it.
“The Conservative Party is getting eaten alive by Reform, and Reform is repugnant, and the Liberal Democrats are irrelevant.”
The First Minister adds: “I’m going to lead a hopeful and optimistic campaign to set out to the people of Scotland the benefits of independence, and I think that is something to be very confident and optimistic about.”
His comments come as voters prepare to go to the polls in both Scotland and Wales – with the potential for a Plaid Cymru First Minister in Wales for the first time ever, along with nationalist first ministers in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.
This would be a “seismic change”, were it to happen, Mr Swinney says, adding that in Wales, where Labour have been in power since the start of devolution, it would be a “massive change in the fortunes and perspective of the Labour Party” which would then have “enormous implications for the United Kingdom”.
He adds that in the SNP campaign “the mood is very positive”, with his party fighting for a record fifth consecutive term in power at Holyrood.
Mr Swinney however stresses it is the “first Scottish Parliament election in which I am standing for re-election as First Minister”, having taken over the role almost two years ago when predecessor Humza Yousaf stepped down.
He adds: “I think people generally view me as a reliable character, somebody they can depend upon to do the right thing, who will always have Scotland’s interests at heart.”
This, he says, will be “very much part of the judgment that people make” when they go to the polls on May 7.
In the run-up to that he is “juggling” campaigning with his family responsibilities to his wife Elizabeth, who has multiple sclerosis, while his youngest child Matthew, 15, is about to sit exams at school.
Mr Swinney says: “It is all a juggle. But lots of people have lots of juggles in their life, I am no different.”
However on the campaign trail he said he has been managing to get home “most nights”, which he says is “actually a big benefit”.
The SNP leader said: “We’re trying to structure my campaign to make sure I get home at night, which really matters.”
