The number of young people not in in education, employment or training could rise to one in six by 2031, a review will say.
The number of young people neither working nor learning could reach 1.25 million within the next five years, a review by an ex-Labour health secretary will warn amid fears of a “lost generation”.
Its author Alan Milburn is expected to say the first rung of the career ladder is “simply out of reach” for many young people and conclude it is not this group’s fault but rather “failure of a system stuck in the past”.
While currently around one in eight people aged 16 to 24 in the UK are not in education, employment or training (Neet), this could rise to one in six young people by 2031 – representing 1.25 million young lives – the review will say.
Mr Milburn, who is leading the review of the Neets crisis for the Government, will publish his interim report on Thursday.
The former Labour Cabinet minister has already spoken about some of his findings, warning at the weekend of a “bedroom generation” and saying anxiety linked to social media is driving economic inactivity among young people.
Publishing his report, he is expected to say: “Six in 10 have never had a job. Twenty years ago, that figure was closer to four in 10.
“Detachment is no longer temporary. For too many young people it is becoming permanent. We are at risk of a lost generation.”
The most recent figures showed 12.8% of all people aged 16 to 24 in the UK were not in education, employment or training (Neet) in October to December 2025.
The total number of Neets was 957,000, the Office for National Statistics said.
New data on Neets is expected to be published on Thursday morning.
Mr Milburn will say: “The first rung of the career ladder has thinned. For too many young people it is now simply out of reach.
“That places them in a hopeless Catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone.”
He is expected to call for urgent action and tell the Government the issue “should be the priority”.
He will say: “This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past.
“Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market.
“Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits.
“This should be the priority for the Government. It should be the priority for all of us.”
The review is expected to state that 84% of Neets surveyed said they wanted a job or training, which it said challenges the narrative that young people do not want to work.
The research also found that for every £1 spent on employment support for young people, around £25 was spent on benefits, which it describes as a “fundamental imbalance in how public money is spent”.
The report is expected to set out how entry level jobs have been in sharp decline with 1.6 million fewer low and medium skilled jobs in the economy, making it difficult for people to get into the jobs market.
It will say vacancies in hospitality have halved in the last four years alone while so-called “Saturday jobs” have long been declining and apprenticeship starts among young people have plummeted 35% in the past decade.
While this report is expected to set out why the system is seen to be failing young people and what the situation will lead to if nothing changes, recommendations for fundamental reform are not expected until later this year.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has previously said the impact of youth unemployment could scar people for the rest of their lives, branding it a “a quiet crisis, a ticking timebomb, which risks their future working lives”.
It was reported he will announce plans for 300,000 extra work experience placements over the next three years, with the DWP saying the Government is keen to “give every young person the best start in their career”.
Mr McFadden said: “I commissioned this report because we cannot afford to lose a generation of young people, and I welcome Alan Milburn’s vital work which lays bare the scale of the challenge and the root causes of youth unemployment we now need to confront.”
He pledged to “work across government and with employers, charities and young people to drive real change, so more young people are earning or learning, not left behind”.
Marks & Spencer chief executive Stuart Machin said the report “lays bare the joblessness crisis facing a generation of young people”, warning that the findings are “shocking but not surprising”.
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said the report shows “an entire generation is being let down” and that the system “is not doing enough to help them build confidence, gain experience or find a secure route into employment”.
IPPR executive director, Harry Quilter-Pinner, said: “Turning this around will take action across government, involving multiple departments and a range of policy solutions.
“But the priority is simple: make sure every young person can access good training and a real route into secure work.”
David Hughes, chief executive at the Association of Colleges said colleges must be “at the heart of the system and with the right investment can do so much more”.
He added: “In countries that have successfully reduced Neet numbers, young people are offered more time in college doing technical education and better access to supportive apprenticeships.”
Big Issue founder and crossbench peer in the House of Lords, John Bird, said: “As the job market becomes more competitive, it will be those disadvantaged by poverty who lose out.
“If the Milburn Review is serious about a system reset, it must start by recognising poverty is not just an outcome of the Neet crisis – it is its driving force.”
Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said: “This report is overdue, but Starmer and his leadership rivals are too busy playing politics to deal with this generational crisis.
“Every policy choice Labour has made, from their jobs tax, capping apprenticeship funding, or trapping young people on welfare, has made it harder for a young person to take their first step into work. Their only answer has been a flurry of piecemeal work programmes – an approach this report rubbishes.”
